Hybrid Cars – A Sales Forecast
It is rather difficult to analyze the trend that the sale of hybrids follow. This is because of mixed opinions. Even highly educated analysts disagree on the forecast on hybrids. This has lead to a deadlock between the experts. We can either wait for the results or decide for ourselves. However, in the meantime, it may help to know what each side thinks about the forecast.
One section of researchers is of the opinion that the main variable in the trend of car sales is the rising prices of gasoline. While most consumers worry about their gas guzzling cars and sport utility vehicles, it is rather questionable whether car sales will be affected by the high prices. However, there is another group of experts who believe that even though gas prices are higher than ever and still rising, they are still not high enough to substantially influence car sales. Their argument is that consumers are so in love with their large vehicles that in spite of all their complaints they will still continue to drive them and purchase more like them. Their estimate is that gas prices would have to increase to prices above $4 for there to be a substantial effect on the sales of hybrids.
Contradictory to this, another set of experts say that their research shows that at least one in six buyers have changed their minds about a planned vehicle purchase thanks to rising gasoline prices. These studies suggest that selling vehicles that require less gasoline will raise at least enough to copy this study’s findings. The experts on this side of the argument say that consumers are it is quite logical to be motivated to purchase hybrids because of high gasoline prices.
Manufacturers tend to agree with those who think hybrid sales will increase this year. The manufacturers are more than convinced of this fact by the long waiting lists for new hybrid vehicles. The Toyota Prius and the Honda Civic hybrids are some of the most popular and have lengthy waiting lists. After several sports utility models have been added to the list of available hybrids, there is absolutely no doubt in the minds of the manufacturers that sales of hybrids are destined to rise. Some manufacturers have even been so bold as to predict the doubling of sales.
However, the fact is that at this time, trucks are continuing to sell much better than cars. Hybrid models of sports utility vehicles and truck models will need to completely blow everything else out of the water to even catch up with regular truck sales. So far there is no evidence that this will happen.
In spite of this, researchers do agree that each year the sales of hybrids will increase. There is no argument over whether or not there will be increases really, but about to what extent an increase will be present. Some researchers even feel that with incentives being offered to consumers who buy hybrids, one can expect an increase in sales. With more and more states offering free parking and tax incentives for hybrid owners, hybrid purchases are becoming more appealing than ever.
Another factor affecting sales in a large way is the passage of “clean-air” laws in many states. These laws will turn consumers towards truck alternatives, whether they like it or not. Last year hybrids accounted for only 0.5 percent of the market, however according to most expert forecasts, by 2012 they will account for at least 3.5 percent of the market.
The West Coast of the United States will contribute the most to this change. This is because the West Coast tends to be more aware and involved in environmental issues than other areas. It is likely therefore, that most of the increases will be due to consumers in this area. The increase is likely because of the effort by government to focus on the benefits of hybrid vehicles.
With more hybrid alternatives available for today’s consumer, it is logical to think that hybrid sales will increase moderately. Apart from gas prices, it is likely that increase in environmental education is going to have an impact on a lot of consumers. If consumers can feel good about a vehicle that saves them money and is sensitive to the environment as well, they are more likely to buy it. To top that, if the government is also offering tax and parking incentives, they will definitely buy it.